Wednesday, July 23, 2008

AWD Pennant Race Forecast



With the Tweeners 25 games back and the Zaps having played too few games to make any kind of prediction, the race - if there is one - will be between the Brothers Mullen. The Snakes and Bees. Currently, the standings board looks like this:
Killer Bees 84-43
Sidewinders 65-44 (10 games back)

Their remaining opponents:

Bees (35 games left):
10 vs the Zaps, Nads, and Inmates
5 vs the Oilers

Sidewinders (53 games left):
14 vs the Zaps and Tweeners
10 vs the Nads
5 vs the Drillers, Buckeyes, and Mavs

An analysis:
The Bees only have 35 games left, and only has four opponents to face. And all four of those are teams that are big question marks. If the Bees are not forced into some weird situations due to AB/IP issues, my prediction is that he stays pretty close to the pace he's on (or slightly under, actually) and goes 21-14. That would give the Bees a final record of 105-57.

The Snakes have 53 left, but 28 of them are against the Zaps and Tweeners. Assuming the Snakeman can stay sober for most of those 28, I'll say he takes his AWD brethren to the cleaners, going 18-10. The Nads are an enigma, having not played a game since March 20th. I'll say the Snakes go 6-4 there. The other three are shorter series against two playoff-contending clubs and a team dwelling in the cellar. I'll say 3 wins each against GPB and OUD, and 4-1 against the Mavs. If my math is correct, that would leave the SSW a lofty - but not quite good enough - 99-63.

That would give the Bees a bye and probably the #1 seed overall. The Snakes would get the #5 seed and learn what it's like to pay airfare for a first round exit and two afternoons of flickin' the bean. Or it might just lead to a Brothers Mullen World Series.

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