Sunday, July 22, 2018

Handicapping the Stretch Run

Here are the current rankings of all teams...


Here are my predictions at how the season will play out...

Seed 1 - Sidewinders. They may be 3 games in back of the Warpigs right now, but that's misleading. The Pigs don't have many games left, and the Snakes have a bunch. Actually, the Stanley boys have a better winning percentage. The kicker is their remaining schedule. The Snakes have 24 games left with the Goofs & Mavs. But even when they're playing the more competitive teams, that bullpen is just too good. They've won the last two league titles; here comes the three-peat. Expect the Snakes to end the season with 109 wins and the #1 seed.

Seed 2 - Weevils. Here's my surprise pick. With their starting pitching, home run hitters, and (especially) remaining schedule, the Weevils will win 104, nabbing the #2 seed, and forcing the Inmates to play a first round series.

Seed 3 - Inmates. The LDMFs are on the outside looking in right now, but they have already played most of the playoff-contending teams. They have 24 games left with the Nads, Wahoos, and Goofs. They do have some tough series remaining, too, but this is a really good team. Their bullpen is maybe better than the Sidewinders' (but not as deep), and they score a ton of runs. The Inmates will end the regular season with 103 wins and the #3 seed. I can hear it now, "We have our first ever 100-win season, and we still have to play the first round."

Seed 4 - Warpigs. Their season is nearly complete, but some important games remain against the Buckeyes and DVs. This might be another 100-win season for the Pigs, but expect 99.

Seed 5 - Buckeyes. The Buckeyes have a pretty tough schedule remaining, including 21 with the four teams above and 15 with two teams fighting for a playoff spot. In fact, those 36 games are all they have left. They'll win 95. A first round Buckeye/Warpig matchup would be fun, though, right?

Seed 6 - Picking the team that gets to knock off the Inmates in the first round is especially difficult this year. There are 5 teams jostling for the spot as we head down the stretch. Some have favorable schedules on their side. Some have better pitching. Some have better hitting. But the #6 seed in the playoffs will be... the Tweeners. They'll have to hold their own (so to speak) in their 20 games with the Snakes and Rhinos, and they'll really need to take advantage of their 20 with the Nads and Mavs, but I have the Tweeners winning 90, pissing off the Rhinos, DVs, Fungoes, and Drillers. Later, they get to piss off the Inmates.

Picking 10th - Rhinos. The Rhinos do have 27 left with the Wahoos, Nads, and Mavs, but he also has 27 left with the Snakes, Tweeners, and Inmates. It's been an impressive season for a team with no relievers and only 138 catcher ABs, but my algorithm has them coming up short, winning 89.

Picking 9th - DVs. If the season ended today, the DVs would be in the playoffs. Unfortunately, it doesn't end today, and of their 34 remaining games, the DVs face the Weevils, Warpigs, Fungoes, and Buckeyes for 27 of them. 88 wins.

Picking 7th and 8th - Fungoes and Drillers. 86 wins each. The important series for the Fungoes will be the 10 with the Buckeyes, but they also have 12 with the Inmates/DVs. The Fungoes do have 14 with the Nads, but it may not be enough. The Drillers have a great remaining schedule with 20 against the Wahoos and Nads, but he also has 10 with the Inmates.

As you can see, the race for the 6th seed will be a fun one to watch, with every series being important. Any one of these 5 teams could make it to the post season, but it would take something wild for two of them to get in.

Picking 6th - FFTs. My safest prediction: they will end the season with 83 wins.

Picking 5th - Killer Bees. Their once promising season has fallen on hard times, peaking with their 0-4 against the Tweeners at the end of the Nashville weekend. As the Drillers often do, the Bees have waited too late to start tanking for draft position. They'll come close to winning half their games, but fall short by 6-7 games.

Picking 4th - Mavs. They could still pick 3rd. It depends more on the Nads than it does the Mavs.

Picking 3rd - Nads. For the integrity of the league, Nadman, please play your games against all the above teams via NetPlay (if not in person). You've got a decent team - you shut me out 3 times. Make these other guys earn it.

Picking 2nd - Wahoos. The Wahoos are so bad, they don't have to tank. The 2-15 Nashville weekend had nothing to do with tanking and everything to do with giving up double digit runs in every home game. But they can score some themselves too, and that will cost him in his close matchup with the Goofs.

Picking 1st - Goofs. I trust somebody will tell him how he did.

The only thing that would disappoint me (other than the Pigs falling apart down the stretch, of course) would be any of the remaining games being done via CM. There are too many teams fighting for byes and playoff spots for that to happen. Make every effort you can to get together before giving up.

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