Monday, September 01, 2008

Strateegery

Game situation: Game tied 5-5, bottom of the 7th. Your opponent has a runner at third, but there are two outs. Your pitcher on the mound is not your best reliever, but he is a rhp who shuts down right handed batters pretty well, although he is susceptible to lefty batters. In the pen, you have plenty to choose from: a lefty or two, a backwards rhp, and a couple of rhp who are good on both sides of the card. The batters due up are:
1. lefty batter who doesn't hit LHP, but who has been crushing RHP (has already hit two homers this game)
2. on deck is a righty who is slighly below average on both sides of the card.
Either or both can be pinch hit for, although the pickings on the bench don't include anybody who is scary-good.

What's your move?
Option 1: pitch to the lefty and hope to get lucky
Option 2: walk the hot lefty and see what kind of pinch hitter comes out to replace the below average righty
Option 3: bring in a LHP and force the other manager's hand (does he pull the hot lefty? does he leave him in?). you could still walk the pinch hitter if necessary.
Option 4: same as option 3, but instead of the lefty, bring in the backwards rhp who is so bad vs rh batters that a pinch hitter is almost a certainty.

These options faced the Chief in a game. The batter was Ryan Church, who had 3 homers and a double in his last 5 at bats. The on deck batter was Garrett Atkins. The Chief went with option 4. I was then faced with the choice of a rh pinch hitter or sticking with Church. In real life, there's no way you pull a guy as hot as Church here - even if a lefty had been brought in - but this is Strat, where unrealistic moves happen all the time. In this case though, I couldn't stand the thought of bringing in Thames and watching him roll in the 2-column, costing Church another hit, so I stuck with Ryan. The Chief had been counting on a pinch hitter and an intentional walk to him, but decided since it was still the lefty bat to pitch to him. (Sidenote: The Chief actually said right before the roll: "He'll probably roll 5-9 and it won't even matter.") Church rolled 5-9 for a triple.

The damage was done, but it escalated anyway. Atkins was walked intentionally to get to the lefty hitting Hafner. Thames hit for Hafner, which brought in one of the balanced rhp's. Thames drove in both runners with a double that very nearly left the yard.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Walk that bastage while flipping off the manager with the hot 'TWO' die working. Make him burn two pinch hitters in the next at bat by using your pen and hope Hal throws out the attempted steal.

How hard is that?

dd